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News Link • Economy - Economics USA

JPMorgan Capitulates, No Longer Expects Rate Hikes In 2019

•, By Tyler Durden

Taking a diametrically opposite stance to Morgan Stanley, which earlier this week forecast that as a result of a rebound in the economy in the second half, and an acceleration in inflation into 2020 and further, the Fed would hike rates once in 2019 (in December) followed by three more hikes in 2020, on Thursday JPMorgan's chief economist Michael Feroli published a report in which he changed his "Fed view" and as a result it no longer sees any more rate hikes in 2019 (it had previously predicted one in December), and just one more hike in 2020.

As Feroli writes in his preview of next week's key Fed meeting, the latest "dot plot" to be revealed in one week, will most likely indicate an expectation of zero hikes, and "irrespective of what happens with the dots, we now look for no hikes this year" as the Fed's "longer-run discussion of inflation "makeup" strategies is just getting going."

Feroli elaborates, noting that while the FOMC is almost certain to leave policy rates unchanged next week, "the more interesting development will be what the "dot plot" signals about their intentions for the rest of the year."

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