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IPFS News Link • Russia

Russia's Exports Continue to Defy Sanctions

• By Thomas Luongo Gold Goats n Guns

Russia is winning its war of attrition against aggressive U.S. sanctions policy. Diplomatically, Russia is winning on all fronts, finding positive solutions through its abundant energy reserves to open gaps in relationships hat have been frozen in geopolitical amber for two generations.

The latest balance of trade data from Rosstat tells the tale. Russia continues to run a massive trade surplus even though oil prices crashed in the fourth quarter and have only somewhat recovered.

I've covered the surprising stability of the Russian ruble over the past six months given the volatility in oil prices in the past. That stability is key to the future of central Asia as well as eastern Europe.

Putin is positioning Russia and the ruble as the glue which ties central Asia's development together through the Eurasian Economic Union. So, it and Russia's economy defying the best efforts of the U.S. to impede its growth is something to keep watch on.

Russia's overall exports are governed by it's oil production. With the U.S. threatening all manner of new sanctions throughout 2017, Russia turned on the oil spigots after Trump's disastrous Aluminum tariffs and his exiting the JCPOA.

But, let's do some math. From 10.5 million bbl/day to 11 million bbl/day is only an increase of around $1 billion per month assuming all of that oil is exported at an average price of $60/bbl and zero cost of production.

500,000 bbl/day X $60/bbl X 30 days/month equals $900,000,000.


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