Total domestic, private-label CMBS issuance clocked in between $168 billion and $230 billion in annually between 2005 and 2007. That figure declined to $2.8 billion in 2009 and $11 billion in 2010. Because most CMBS loans have 10-year terms, the potential volume of refinancing opportunities among existing securitized loans would appear slim.
However, as TREPP notes in a recent research report, thanks to the rising popularity of single-asset transactions, a sizable chunk of shorter-term, floating-rate deals with built-in extension options were completed in recent years. That has added bulk to the maturing load.
Based on a November snapshot, nearly $100 billion of CMBS debt will be up for refinancing between now and 2020, with $40.9 billion and $44.0 billion scheduled to pay off in 2019 and 2020, respectively. And here's the main risk: Loans against hotels – the property type that is most sensitive to cyclical and demand variability – account for 31% of the maturing volume.