The failure of China's two baby policy will hit home in a few weeks when the 2018 baby birth statistics are officially released. Official statistics will show the number of children born last year was the lowest since 2000. The final figure could fall below 15 million and will be more than two million fewer than in 2017.

Baby Policy Failure

China shutdown the Family Planning Commission in 2018. The new National Health Commission will take over responsibility for population management from the National Health and Family Planning Commission.

The family planning authority's had previously estimated there would be up to 20 million births in 2018. Currently, the 2018 births are expected to be 14 or 15 million.

The 2017 numbers extended through 2050 would have already meant China's workforce would shrink by about 20% by 2050. The 2018 numbers trended through 2050 would have already meant China's workforce would shrink by about 30% by 2050.