Today, almost a year and a half later, the world is once again on the verge of a recession, with China - whose recent economic data has been on the verge of disaster - closely watched as the spark that could light the next global economic and financial conflagration. And not surprisingly, it is again all about the Chinese credit impulse, which - it should come as no surprise - has dropped to just shy of a fresh post-crisis low (note how it was China's record credit impulse burst in 2009 that dragged the world out of a global recession).

Which brings us to the latest Chinese data overnight, which as we discussed yesterday showed that activity has further disappointed with Industrial Production missing and consumption/retail sales slowing, a message consistent with what we heard yesterday from global central banks, as the global slowdown forced both the ECB and SNB to lower 2019 growth- and inflation- estimates, along with the Bundesbank today cutting the German growth projection as well (while the latest PMI data showed German private sector expansion dropped to a four year lows)—all corresponding with the Fed's own "dovish pivot."