The supply-side story for oil prices is heavily skewed to the upside, with production losses from Iran and Venezuela causing a rapid tightening of the market. But the demand side of the equation is much more complex and harder to pin down.

Economists and investment banks are increasingly sounding the alarm on the global economy, raising red flags about the potential dangers ahead. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase recently suggested that a full-scale trade war would lead the steep corporate losses and a bear market for stocks.

The Trump administration just took its trade war with China to a new level, adding $200 billion worth of tariffs on imported Chinese goods. That was met with swift retaliation. Trump promised another $267 billion in tariffs are in the offing.