In any analysis of contemporary international politics it pays to be cautiously pessimistic. As the default mode one can generally expect that any way in which things can go wrong to threaten the peace and security of the planet, they will. Anticipation of improvement is a chump's bet.

That's why the analyst's gut instinct rebels at any indication that things overall may be moving in a positive direction, however haltingly or indirectly. But consider:

Trump-Putin summit: President Donald Trump has again indicated his interest in finally holding a formal summit with President Vladimir Putin. Austria has offered Vienna as a venue.

Trump-Kim summit: Despite what was almost surely a deliberate effort in Washington to torpedo the June 12 Singapore meeting, it's back on. To the chagrin of many in the US nomenklatura dedicated to a permanent American presence on the East Asian mainland, there's perhaps even a danger of peace breaking out on the Korean peninsula. Oh no! How do we then justify keeping American troops there? What happens to the happy prospect of US forces confronting China on the Yalu River in the event of regime change in North Korea? Might a Trans-Korean Railway connecting the South to Russia and China get built? The possibilities are too horrible to contemplate.

Goodbye Russiagate, hello Spygate: Allegations of Trump's and his team's collusion with the Kremlin are increasingly exposed as what they are: a cover for an anti-constitutional conspiracy within the structures of the US Deep State (CIA, NSA, FBI, Department of Justice, etc.) in complicity with – the Russians? – no with their British sister agencies (MI6, GCHQ), first to deny Trump the presidency, then to neuter him and remove him from office, and above all to block any chance of a patch-up with Russia. While Robert Mueller and his merry band of Democratic donors certainly have not given up, their prospects are fading and the Russia obsession is beginning to turn into a political liability for the DNC in the November Congressional elections.

European populism marches on: Viva l'Italia! The European Union's (EU) favorite Sicilian, Italian President Sergio Mattarella, tied to whack the M5S/Lega coalition. The hit failed. Now Italy, the third-largest economy in the eurozone – too big to be smacked around like Greece – joins the populist bloc centered in the Visegrád Group, plus Austria. This has particular importance with respect to the EU's (and Germany's) disastrous open door migration policy.

Trade: In his boldest "America First!" move to date, Trump has slapped higher steel and aluminum tariffs on – well, pretty much everybody. While the move itself may be a bit ham-fisted, it has signaled that the days of the US attachment to one-way free trade while our trade partners practice mercantilism are over.