When analysts talk about the biggest threats to the second longest economic expansion in US history that has sent the unemployment rate in the US to its lowest level in 18 years, the risk of a trade war often occupies a sizable chunk of the conversation. And now that President Trump has decided to slap Section 232 tariffs on metals imports from some of America's closest allies, we'll be hearing even more about the risks as academics and economists latch on to the notion that tariffs will harm the US economy (the same way Brexit would unleash a UK depression).

But while trade-war related risks have yet to materialize, the possibility that we're headed for - or are already in the middle of - an oil shock is looking increasingly more likely, despite numerous analysts and economists writing off rising oil prices as a non-issue (in a recent note about how rising oil prices will impact the Asian economy, researchers at SocGen played down oil price risks to both growth and inflation).