That is the question investors are grappling with just as Q1 earnings season - the best since 2011 with its 18% Y/Y expected EPS growth - enters its busiest week yet. Meanwhile, as discussed here extensively in recent weeks, over the past two  months economic data from around the globe, but especially Europe and the US, has come in unexpectedly soft resulting in the first negative print in Citi's Global Eco Surprise Index, and now the most negative since early 2016...

... and, more notably, an inversion in the forward OIS curve - the first in 13 years - which as JPMorgan noted was the clearest confirmation that the US economy is very "late cycle", and that a conventional yield curve inversion (2s10s), a harbinger of recession, is not far behind.