With nearly everyone, even Janet Yellen at the Fed, predicting wage-induced inflation, Jakobsen makes a bold call in the opposite direction.

This is a guest post by Steen Jakobsen

Steen's Chronicle: All Great Things are Simple, Except Right Now

"All the great things are simple, and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honour, duty, mercy, hope" — Winston Churchill

Let's start with what is currently simple, and what has been simple all year.

The US dollar has peaked and started a multi-year cycle lower as both US and world growth can't work without a weaker dollar (a stronger dollar kills growth through debt service, emerging markets, and commodities).

Everything is deflationary: demographics, technology, energy, and the debt mountain.

The credit impulse peaked in late 2016/early 2017 leaving global growth vulnerable in the fourth quarter of 2016 and into Q1'17.

US interest rates are headed to 0% in 10-year government yields by the end of 2018, early 2019.