Until that point, there had been no dramatic populist upsets, so the market's optimism was understandable. Then came Trump. And I can say about that is, well, it was Trump, so the market again erred in assuming there would be no dramatic surprise.

After these two upsets, the market finally caught on to the game. When the French election rolled around, worried about a potential Le Pen win, market participants took a much less sanguine view. Ahead of the first election round, hedges were bought, worried op-eds were written about the dangers of a Le Pen victory and all in all, markets took the potential of another populist win quite seriously.

Yet, since it was announced that Le Pen and Macron had advanced to the second round, the market has become convinced Macron will be the next leader of France. Yeah, I get it, the math definitely seems to indicate that Le Pen will not be able to defeat Macron.