"A colourful and talented man" was how Vladimir Putin described Donald Trump back in December. In June, he went further: "Mr Trump has declared that he's ready for the full restoration of Russian-American relations. Is there anything bad there? We all welcome this, don't you?"

These are the only comments Putin has made on Trump, but nevertheless, Trump's potential Russia links have become one of the biggest stories of the election campaign, as the media investigates everything from his dubious business links in Russia, to his campaign manager's links to Russian and Ukrainian cashflows, to the Gazprom links and Kremlin-friendly ideology of one of his campaign advisers.

Some have even gone as far as to insinuate that Trump could be a Russian agent, sent to implement the Kremlin's nefarious plans.

So, is Putin hatching a cunning plan to put Trump in the White House? The apparent hacking of Democratic party emails by Russian hackers might suggest so. There certainly has been what appears to be coordinated chatter among pro-Kremlin Twitter accounts, ranging from low-level spammers to Alexey Pushkov, one of Russia's top foreign policy officials, who has been surprisingly forthright about his admiration for Trump.

But Kremlin watchers say the picture may be more nuanced. In Moscow, there is sniggering at the idea of Trump as a Manchurian candidate.

"It's been amazing to see that hysteria and paranoia about external interference is not just a Russian thing," said Gleb Pavlovsky, a political analyst who advised the Kremlin until 2011.

A source close to the Kremlin said: "I think Putin has conflicted feelings about Trump ... Of course, he says nice things about Russia. But Hillary is more predictable. With Trump, who knows what would happen?"

The potential appeal of Trump is his willingness to dismiss "political correctness", and work outside the rules. While Trump's fiery rhetoric has alarmed many world leaders, Pushkov has hailed it as "common sense". Putin believes all world leaders are cynical, merely cloaking their cynicism with high-minded rhetoric about democracy and human rights – and at least Trump does not attempt to hide his contempt for convention and willingness to flout established norms.

"I think Putin probably likes Trump from an aesthetic point of view," said Valery Garbuzov, director of the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, a government-linked thinktank set up in 1967 to give the Soviet leadership analysis and advice on how to deal with the US. "But he should be aware that the reality could be very different."

Putin's attitude toward Trump is bound up in his thoughts about US power in general, as well as a personal dislike for Trump's rival, Hillary Clinton.

Putin came to power in 2000 determined to restore Russia's position as a "first-tier nation" and have its voice respected in the international arena. During the 1990s, a weak, ailing Russia had been unable to influence events internationally.