There is an eerie quiet across markets, one day before the year's main risk event: with the UK referendum vote starting in less than 24 hours and results due out shortly after, it is as if even the algos have stopped frontrunning other algos, in a market so thin and illiquid even the smallest order can result in a gap, either higher or lower. As a result, European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are little changed ahead of Thursday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index swinging between gains and losses more than five times so far today.

As Chihiro Ohta, a senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo summarized: "what investors hate the most is uncertainty. Most are just waiting on the sidelines to see what happens." Apparently Chihiro - as well as Janet Yellen - forgot that there is no such thing as certainty in the market, or least there wasn't before central bankers took over.

So for now, as "sidelined" investors wait, the MSCI All-Country World Index was little changed following three days of gains as bookmakers' odds implied there's only about a one-in-four chance that Britons will opt to leave the EU in Thursday's referendum, even as the FT poll of polls gives Leave a small advantage. Sterling rose against most of its 16 peers and shares in emerging markets advanced for a fourth day. Crude oil was set to close above $50 a barrel for the first time in almost two weeks following yesterday's sharp drop in inventories according to API.

As we approach Friday, the first day when Brexit will be in the rearview mirror, the question is how much of a "Remain" vote has been priced in: global stocks have climbed in the past three days as odds of a so-called Brexit fell at betting shops after the murder of a U.K. lawmaker who favored staying in the EU on Thursday. The implied chance of a leave vote dropped to about 25 percent from 43 percent a week ago.

Here is how Deutsche Bank evaluates the market-implied odds:

The shift in opinion poll momentum towards 'remain' over the weekend has perhaps reversed a touch over the last 48 hours and the FT poll of polls is still forecasting a close run outcome. The betting market though suggests a much greater bias towards 'remain' and is currently predicting a 79.4% chance of success based on the Bloomberg indicator of political odds at bookmakers. That's at the upper end of what's been a wide range over the last month or so. Indeed the implied probability peaked at around 85% back at the end of May – where it held for some 10 days or so – before then toughing to a low of 61% intraday on the 16th June. So the probability is now 6% off the highs and 18% up from the lows. Whether this high number has an inbuilt expectation of a late shift towards the status quo (as with Quebec and Scotland referendums) we don't know.

Some think they do know, and believe there is still some upside should Leave lose tomorrow: "'Remain' is not completely priced in as the costs of a 'Leave' could be quite large," said Daniel Murray, head of research at EFG Asset Management in London. "It's clear that betting odds are skewed towards remain at the moment, which is the main data the market will be moving on until there is a clear outcome."

In this muted, illiquid environment, there was still some upside, with the MSCI AC World Index adding less than 0.1% as of 10:55 a.m. in London. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index swung between gains and losses more than five times after capping their biggest three-day advance in almost 10 months yesterday. The FTSE 100 Index of U.K. stocks rose for a fourth day in the longest run of gains in two weeks. S&P500 futures rose 0.1 % after the U.S. index closed higher in a zigzag session Tuesday. Adobe Systems Inc. fell 5.2 percent in pre-market New York trading after forecasting revenue in the current quarter that may miss analysts' estimates amid slowing momentum for its cloud-based products. The MSCI Emerging Market Index rose 0.4 percent, following a 3.2 percent jump over the last three days. Chinese stocks led the advance on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index climbing 0.9 percent to a two-week high.

The yield on U.S. Treasuries due in a decade retreated from a two-week high, falling two basis points to 1.69 percent. The Fed's Yellen reiterated on Tuesday that a vote to leave the EU could have "significant economic repercussions," even as she warned against exaggerating its global impact. She had said on June 15 that Brexit risks played a part in the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to hold off from raising interest rates. Yellen is scheduled to give a second day of testimony before lawmakers Wednesday. 

This is where global markets stood as of this moment:

S&P 500 futures down less than 0.1% to 2080

Stoxx 600 up less than 0.1% to 340

FTSE 100 up 0.2% to 6237

DAX up 0.4% to 10059

German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 0.04%

Italian 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.43%

Spanish 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.49%

S&P GSCI Index up 0.5% to 382.2

MSCI Asia Pacific down less than 0.1% to 130

Nikkei 225 down 0.6% to 16066

Hang Seng up 0.6% to 20795

Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2906

S&P/ASX 200 down less than 0.1% to 5271

US 10-yr yield down 2bps to 1.69%

Dollar Index down 0.1% to 93.93

WTI Crude futures up 1% to $50.33

Brent Futures up 0.7% to $50.99

Gold spot down less than 0.1% to $1,267

Silver spot down 0.4% to $17.22

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