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IPFS News Link • Business/ Commerce

Phony Surge In Oil And Commodities Heading For Reversal---25% Price Plunge

• davidstockmanscontracorner.com

A note issued by the bank said that although investors have beenattracted to commodities as one of the best performing assets so far in 2016, returns are unlikely to be sustained in the second quarter of the year.

"This could make commodities vulnerable to a wave of investor liquidation that we estimate could, in a worst case scenario, knock as much as 20-25% from current price levels," the note said.

This would take the price of oil back to the low $30s and copper to the low $4,000s, the analysts said.

The bank said that the recent price appreciation does not seem to be well founded in improving fundamentals, and that key markets such as oil and copper already face overhangs of excess production capacity and inventories.

Net flows of investment into commodities totalled more than $20bn in January and February, the strongest start to a year since 2011.


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