The U.S. Economy Is About to Grow Explosively, Or Whatever

02-07-2011 • OfTwoMinds.com/blog

The relentlessly managed perception is that the "spot of bother" circa 2008-09 is history, and the situation has been restored to normalcy, i.e. a rising stock market, super-low interest rates and unlimited Central State borrowing. The key tools for managing perceptions are: 1) statistical evidence for rising profits, GDP, etc. and declining unemployment, and 2) the rising stock market, which supposedly triggers a "wealth effect" in the 10% of the population with enough financial assets to actually experience an increase in wealth. We can see how the stock market has returned to "the good old days" after that "spot of bother:" The reality is the "official account" of the real economy has near-zero credibility. Officially, there is no inflation in the Consumer Price Index. Officially, unemployment has plummeted to 9%--painfully high, perhaps, but an "improvement" that "augurs well for future growth"--blah, blah, blah. As if a lack of "growth" is what ails the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, on that distant island once known as reality, the factors at play include: 1. A potentially unlimited number of credit-created dollars is chasing a limited supply of tangible goods. How long that dynamic will endure nobody knows, but we do know the real world has limits, and credit creation does not.